@SmallCapScience
InsiderHOOD 100%Small Cap Scientist 👨🔬🧪🥼
113,696 followers · last synced 2026-05-10 · lookback 90d
Cohort medians below are the honest full-record aggregate over every matured call. The Scout / Insider tag is set by concentration — what share of those calls land on the handle's single most-mentioned token — and decides which leaderboard tab the handle appears in.
30d cohort
+0.6%
median excess · n=6 · win 50%
damped +0.4%
5 tokens · top HOOD 33%
90d cohort
-37.0%
median excess · n=2 · win 0%
damped -19.8%
1 token · top HOOD 100%
365d cohort
no matured calls
aggregate trajectory by token
one line per token · mean BTC-excess across all calls of that token, t0-anchored
Click a token to see its individual calls. Each line is the mean of all that token's mentions at each day-from-tweet (linearly interpolated where samples don't line up).
mentions (13)
| date | token | 1d | 7d | 30d | 30d excess | 90d excess | tweet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | $GME | — | — | — | open | open | What happens when $GME files a 13D in the next 48 hours disclosing a 10-15% $EBAY stake? It would only cost $GME $250M - 750M to add another incremental 10% stake in $EBAY using Cash Settled Derivatives. The Ryan Cohen CNBC Interview makes way more sense if GameStop is still accumulating shares before EBay can react with Governance. If GameStop is serious about the deal then any buy below their $125 per share offer is a good deal. If $GME has a sovereign wealth fund or other third party in their back pocket then I think it’s probably likely… why not? |
| 2026-05-05 | $GME | — | — | — | open | open | The GameStop deal has maybe 5-10% likelihood of going through in its current form. $GME Unrealized Gains are ~$400 - $500M on their $EBAY position. $GME Net Income: 2024 - $131.3M 2025 - $418.4M GameStop can walk away and make more than their entire business in 2025… https://t.co/1YhDRt2t9O |
| 2026-05-04 | $GME | — | — | — | open | open | Ryan Cohen has been working on this deal for 12+ months. $GME zero coupon bonds, warrants, and the Cohen pay package all play defense from an $EBAY counteroffer to take over $GME. These zero coupon bonds and GameStop warrants will cause a massive $GME squeeze. Hang Tight https://t.co/8ta36XAOyW |
| 2026-05-04 | $GME | — | — | — | open | open | Michael Burry sold $GME early again.. The mistake he is making is assuming that this $EBAY deal will be accepted at current terms, that won’t happen. GameStop and Ryan Cohen will easily walk away with a massive W in the end. This isn’t close to over. https://t.co/jjlBYtC9Ds |
| 2026-05-02 | BTC | 0.0% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +10.6% | open | The more I look into the $GME deal... it's 100% possible. Ryan Cohen might be able to pull this off. If $GME price explodes above key levels they will be able to raise billions in cash, clear all their debt, and grow their market cap enough to make the buyout possible. Key Levels & Instruments: 1. $32 - GameStop Warrants ($GME.WS) 2. $38 - Convertible Notes (Zero Coupon) 3. $50 - Ryan Cohen Pay Package 1. 59.15M $GME October Warrants become exercisable above $32. If all warrants are exercised they raise $1.9B USD while share count grows from 448M > 510M, or $16.3B MC Dilution here isn't harmful. Warrant holders believe in the stock going higher and are willing to pay a premium to the current price in order to exercise. 2. Two tranches of zero coupon convertible notes were issued to buy $BTC. The convert and expiry is split between 2030 & 2032. These notes are economically in the money above $29-30, which is their convert. 2032 Notes convert: $28.91 2030 Notes convert: $29.85 Conversion is contingent on multiple specific stipulations (Note - this is extremely important later). Note holders can't convert to shares until $GME trades above 130% of the conversion price for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days in the prior quarter. Our trigger prices... 2032 Notes trigger: $37.58 2030 Notes trigger: $38.81 If we hold above $39 and these notes convert to shares, $4.2B in convertible debt is wiped from the balance sheet. Share count would grow 510M > 653M pushing the market cap of $GME to $25B+. $GME would be $25B with ~$11B cash on hand with zero debt... all the sudden buying $EBAY at $45B is possible. 3. Ryan Cohen's Historic $35B Pay Package will become official with a vote in June. The top milestones include $100B market cap and $10B EBITDA for $GME where he would vest 171.5M stock options @ $20.66 strike. Assuming $GME takes over $EBAY he could hit $50-70B market cap and ~$3B of EBITDA year one. If Ryan were to vest all of his shares before an ebay deal (very unlikely) it would add $3.54B in cash and bring the fully diluted share count to 825M ($41B+ MC). Now that you understand the instruments, let's take a step back to understand their plan. Why did they structure it this way...? In my opinion they are designing a squeeze on delta neutral bondholders. Bondholders are in a very unique spot. Once $GME is in the $32-$37 price range they are forced to add short positions to stay delta neutral even if they are below their trigger event. On issuance 65M-80M shares were shorted @ $22 by bondholders to go delta neutral on their positions. If GME is above $32, the $4.2B would need to short approximately 115M-125M total shares ($3.68B) in order to stay delta neutral. The shorts would need to 2x very quickly. Borrowing costs would skyrocket, available shares would disappear, and eventually bondholders will likely struggle to cover their positions as they tread water for 3+ months while their stipulations for exercise were satisfied. Here is where it gets interesting... in order for these books to stay delta neutral they arent just shorting the delta of $GME shares, they also need to short the delta of $GME warrants... which are massively deflationary as they are being exercised. In the $32-40 range for $GME they would be required to short 11-14M $GME+ Warrants of the 59M total available, its extremely reflexive. Quick reminder these bonds expire in 2030 & 2032, they could be forced to short with massive borrow rates for months or even years on both shares & warrants. $32+ warrants will vest, gamma will skyrocket, borrow fees jump on both assets, bondholders will rush to hedge delta, and eventually they run out of warrant supply to cover their positions. 14M of 59M Warrants are already held by Convertible Note holders today as a hedge, what happens if prices spike above $32 quickly? There wont be enough supply to hedge and the full squeeze begins. There are multiple angles here where $GME grows their market cap to $16-32B, grows their cash by billions, and can complete the takeover. As reported by WSJ, it's also extremely likely that they have already accumulated a stealth position in $EBAY. There is a decent chance $GME already owns ~3-5% of $EBAY through share and options purchases. I love the upside here... long $GME shares & warrants. Power to the Players! 🎮 (All Data and Probabilities for Thesis Were Built by Axion AI - https://t.co/ykANlQjgRM) |
| 2026-05-02 | $GME | — | — | — | open | open | The more I look into the $GME deal... it's 100% possible. Ryan Cohen might be able to pull this off. If $GME price explodes above key levels they will be able to raise billions in cash, clear all their debt, and grow their market cap enough to make the buyout possible. Key Levels & Instruments: 1. $32 - GameStop Warrants ($GME.WS) 2. $38 - Convertible Notes (Zero Coupon) 3. $50 - Ryan Cohen Pay Package 1. 59.15M $GME October Warrants become exercisable above $32. If all warrants are exercised they raise $1.9B USD while share count grows from 448M > 510M, or $16.3B MC Dilution here isn't harmful. Warrant holders believe in the stock going higher and are willing to pay a premium to the current price in order to exercise. 2. Two tranches of zero coupon convertible notes were issued to buy $BTC. The convert and expiry is split between 2030 & 2032. These notes are economically in the money above $29-30, which is their convert. 2032 Notes convert: $28.91 2030 Notes convert: $29.85 Conversion is contingent on multiple specific stipulations (Note - this is extremely important later). Note holders can't convert to shares until $GME trades above 130% of the conversion price for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days in the prior quarter. Our trigger prices... 2032 Notes trigger: $37.58 2030 Notes trigger: $38.81 If we hold above $39 and these notes convert to shares, $4.2B in convertible debt is wiped from the balance sheet. Share count would grow 510M > 653M pushing the market cap of $GME to $25B+. $GME would be $25B with ~$11B cash on hand with zero debt... all the sudden buying $EBAY at $45B is possible. 3. Ryan Cohen's Historic $35B Pay Package will become official with a vote in June. The top milestones include $100B market cap and $10B EBITDA for $GME where he would vest 171.5M stock options @ $20.66 strike. Assuming $GME takes over $EBAY he could hit $50-70B market cap and ~$3B of EBITDA year one. If Ryan were to vest all of his shares before an ebay deal (very unlikely) it would add $3.54B in cash and bring the fully diluted share count to 825M ($41B+ MC). Now that you understand the instruments, let's take a step back to understand their plan. Why did they structure it this way...? In my opinion they are designing a squeeze on delta neutral bondholders. Bondholders are in a very unique spot. Once $GME is in the $32-$37 price range they are forced to add short positions to stay delta neutral even if they are below their trigger event. On issuance 65M-80M shares were shorted @ $22 by bondholders to go delta neutral on their positions. If GME is above $32, the $4.2B would need to short approximately 115M-125M total shares ($3.68B) in order to stay delta neutral. The shorts would need to 2x very quickly. Borrowing costs would skyrocket, available shares would disappear, and eventually bondholders will likely struggle to cover their positions as they tread water for 3+ months while their stipulations for exercise were satisfied. Here is where it gets interesting... in order for these books to stay delta neutral they arent just shorting the delta of $GME shares, they also need to short the delta of $GME warrants... which are massively deflationary as they are being exercised. In the $32-40 range for $GME they would be required to short 11-14M $GME+ Warrants of the 59M total available, its extremely reflexive. Quick reminder these bonds expire in 2030 & 2032, they could be forced to short with massive borrow rates for months or even years on both shares & warrants. $32+ warrants will vest, gamma will skyrocket, borrow fees jump on both assets, bondholders will rush to hedge delta, and eventually they run out of warrant supply to cover their positions. 14M of 59M Warrants are already held by Convertible Note holders today as a hedge, what happens if prices spike above $32 quickly? There wont be enough supply to hedge and the full squeeze begins. There are multiple angles here where $GME grows their market cap to $16-32B, grows their cash by billions, and can complete the takeover. As reported by WSJ, it's also extremely likely that they have already accumulated a stealth position in $EBAY. There is a decent chance $GME already owns ~3-5% of $EBAY through share and options purchases. I love the upside here... long $GME shares & warrants. Power to the Players! 🎮 (All Data and Probabilities for Thesis Were Built by Axion AI - https://t.co/ykANlQjgRM) |
| 2026-04-27 | USDC | 0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | +4.4% | open | It’s very long overdue that @circle contributes to DeFi. The amount of free yield that has been pushed toward $USDC and $USDT is unreal. Fully believe that if @circle accumulated 5-10% of all the largest DeFi protocols they would overtake @tether in 5-10 years. https://t.co/vu5cdghjNw |
| 2026-04-27 | USDT | 0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | +4.4% | open | It’s very long overdue that @circle contributes to DeFi. The amount of free yield that has been pushed toward $USDC and $USDT is unreal. Fully believe that if @circle accumulated 5-10% of all the largest DeFi protocols they would overtake @tether in 5-10 years. https://t.co/vu5cdghjNw |
| 2026-04-07 | TALO | — | — | — | open | open | It's probably a good idea to own some US Oil Producers. I'm long $TALO, $WTI, and $EONR to name a few. https://t.co/wQgG8POG1C |
| 2026-03-26 | HYPE | 0.0% | -7.8% | +5.4% | -3.3% | open | $HYPE is doing $850M of annualized fees on a $39B FDV, that’s a 43x multiple. Ostium is doing $60M+ of annualized fees, a 43x multiple would give them a valuation north of $2.5B+. If we speculate an airdrop that’s 20% of supply on a $2.5B val, they would be giving away $500M.. https://t.co/YyH084Km1S |
| 2026-02-24 | $AMC | — | — | — | open | open | $HYMC - People have been missing one of the easiest trades of all time with Hycroft Mining, one of the largest silver mines in the United States. Hycroft is backed by Eric Sprott. Eric is a Canadian Billionaire and one of the biggest names in precious metal investing. Last October he predicted that $HYMC would do 200x or more based on $200 silver prices, $HYMC was $7 at the time. Since that prediction, he has purchased nearly 20M shares on the open market. His $HYMC position is now worth $1.7B+ and he controls ~44% of the company. He's continued buying nonstop with buys even eclipsing $50+ per share. It seems pretty obvious he will continue to buy until he controls the majority of the company with 50%+. In order to get there he would need to purchase ~4.6M more shares, which is nearly $215M USD... (cred. @catfoodcannon) Now for the piece of the trade I haven't seen discussed very often... The float is disappearing in real time. 1. According to Fintel, 43.6M shares (52.62%)are currently held by insiders. 2. Another 24.6M shares (29.62%) are held by institutions. Thats 82% of the entire company held by insiders or institutions, which are essentially locked up. If Sprott were to buy another 6% of supply from the market, 88% of the float would essentially be out of circulation. Don't believe me? Here is a slide from the Hycroft Mining Q1 2026 Investors Presentation - (Source - https://t.co/tPjiLGFxDN) On top of that $HYMC has been added to multiple Silver ETFs which have seen ballooning AUMs such as $SIL / $SILJ which hold millions of shares. As the AUM of these ETFs continue to grow so will their holdings of $HYMC, reducing the float even further. Currently 5M+ shares are sitting in ETFs... (ETFs - https://t.co/rYR7lt5wQB) Randomly $AMC movie theaters also invested into $HYMC multiple years ago. The WSB crowd aped $HYMC for that reason and have been diamond handing their investments. The other angle of this is that Eric openly promoted the trade at $5-7 per share. It created a bunch of longterm holders that are massively in the money. Between insiders, institutions, ETFs, and longterm retail holders the actual float is extremely tiny. I'd assume 5-10% of total shares... and Sprott likely plans to buy 6% more. Heres where it gets fun, Hycroft got massively shorted when silver dropped from highs. Mainly shorts used it as a silver beta due to it's percentage gains over the past year. 8M+ shares are currently short $HYMC as it continues to squeeze higher. Eric Sprott can continue buying at a rapid pace and completely trap these shorts by reducing the float. Hycrofts own presentation estimates there are only 16M shares unlocked to be traded. Eric Sprott is likely to buy another 5.4M shares.... Erics extremely smart he will continue buying up the float to squeeze these shorts which balloons his investment already worth $1.7B+. Where is the liquidity going to come from for these shorts to close their position? I have no idea, I'm sure it will be very expensive though. $HYMC to $100+ feels inevitable, only a matter of time. 📈📈📈 |
| 2026-02-12 | HOOD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.6% | -7.6% | -36.9% | Imagine posting this… Vlad dumped $650M+ worth of his $HOOD shares since last July. The stock is also down 40%+ this month. I’m sure shareholders are glad to see him enjoying the weather though… https://t.co/CnTBBcIOqn |
| 2026-02-12 | HOOD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.6% | -7.6% | -37.2% | Yikes…. $HOOD 📉 Down 40% this month alone. https://t.co/E4GHM1qlPM https://t.co/6BNTTTvlcx |